DOMINION ENERGY (D)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Dominion Energy Beats Guidance as Data Center Demand Fuels $65B Capital Plan

February 23, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Dominion Energy (D) delivered FY 2025 operating earnings of $3.42 per share, exceeding its guidance midpoint of $3.40 by $0.02. The utility giant unveiled a substantially larger $64.7 billion five-year capital plan—up 29% from the prior $50.1 billion—driven by surging data center demand in Northern Virginia, the world's largest data center market.

Shares traded up 0.8% to $65.96 during the session but slipped 1.7% in after-hours trading to $64.87 as investors digested the implications of massive capital spending on shareholder dilution.

Did Dominion Energy Beat Earnings?

Yes. Dominion beat both quarterly and full-year guidance:

FY 2025 operating EPS of $3.42 beat the guidance midpoint of $3.40, which included $0.09 of RNG 45Z income and normal weather. Excluding 45Z credits, operating EPS was $3.33, also above the $3.30 ex-45Z midpoint.

Segment Performance:

Dominion Energy Virginia drove the beat, contributing $0.11 of incremental EPS from rider equity returns (+$0.11), customer usage (+$0.05), and weather (+$0.02), partially offset by salaries/benefits costs (-$0.02) and sale of noncontrolling interest (-$0.05).

What Did Management Guide?

Dominion provided robust 2026 guidance and extended its long-term growth outlook:

2026 Guidance:

Note on 45Z Credit Reduction: The lower 2026 45Z guidance reflects a new GREET model published in 2026 that degrades CI (carbon intensity) scores, plus lower RNG production assumptions. Management noted 2025's $0.09 booking is not at risk since it was calculated under 2025 rules.

Long-Term Outlook:

• 5%-7% annual operating EPS growth rate reaffirmed through 2030 off the 2025 midpoint of $3.30 (ex-45Z)
• Bias to upper half (6-7%) starting in 2028 due to improved business fundamentals
• RNG 45Z credits expected through 2029 (~$0.07/year) but excluded from long-term growth rate due to legislative sunset

EPS Growth vs. Rate Base Growth Gap (3-4%): Management explained the delta between ~10% rate base CAGR and 5-7% EPS growth:

• ~250bps from equity dilution (2.5% of market cap issued annually)
• Higher parent-level interest expense
• Long-lead gas generation projects (2032-2034 in-service) in rate base but not fully cash-converting until operational

Credit & Dividend Guidance Reaffirmed:

What Changed From Last Quarter?

1. Massive Capital Plan Expansion

The five-year capital plan increased 29% to $64.7 billion from $50.1 billion, reflecting accelerated data center demand:

~64% of the capital plan is rider-eligible, providing strong cash conversion. Over 90% of the capital increase is at Dominion Energy Virginia.

PJM Transmission Award: On February 13th, PJM announced awards to Dominion of over $5 billion in transmission projects through 2032—the largest investment awarded since PJM began its open window process.

Rate Base Growth Acceleration:

2. Data Center Demand Acceleration

Dominion Energy Virginia serves the world's largest data center market with contracted capacity reaching 48.5 GW in December 2025, up from 47.1 GW in September 2025.

Key data center metrics:

• Over 450 data centers from 50+ customers
• 2025 capacity requests: 26 GW (up from 15.5 GW in 2024)
• 2025 weather-normal sales growth: 5.4% year-over-year
• Top 20 highest peak demand days in DOM Zone occurred over the last 14 months

Hyperscaler Customer Base:

3. CVOW Project Progress

The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project is now over 70% complete:

• First electricity delivery: By end of March 2026
• Full project completion: Early 2027
• Current capital budget: $11.5B including unused contingency of $155M

Construction Milestones Achieved:

• 176 monopiles installed (ahead of schedule)
• 70%+ transition pieces installed
• Third (final) offshore substation installed February 22nd
• Deep water export cables installed
• First turbine successfully completed in January
• ~70% of towers/nacelles fabricated, 30% of blades fabricated

Turbine Installation Update: Management disclosed a human performance error after installing the first turbine's third blade resulted in blade damage, requiring removal and replacement—a ~2 week delay. CEO Bob Blue cautioned against drawing conclusions from early iterations: "We're deliberately moving more slowly in order to ensure we figuratively measure twice and cut once."

• Target installation pace: ~2.25 days per turbine
• Weather delays through July 2027 are budgeted
• Each quarter of delay beyond July 2027 would add $150-200M to project cost

Deliverability Constraint: Management disclosed that CVOW has assumed 50% energy deliverability for rider recovery until PJM-identified transmission upgrades are completed. Annual interim deliverability studies will be conducted.

Tariff impacts continue to be a headwind:

LCOE remains at $84/MWh including RECs, well below the $149/MWh legislative prudency cap.

How Did the Stock React?

Dominion shares rose 0.8% during the regular session to $65.96 but declined 1.7% in after-hours trading to $64.87. The muted reaction reflects investor concerns about:

1. Equity dilution: The expanded $65B capital plan requires $8.8B in common equity issuance (DRIP + ATM) through 2030, with $1.6-$1.8B in 2026 alone
2. Millstone double outage: 2026 guidance absorbs a Millstone double outage impact while still achieving ~6% growth
3. Execution risk: The ambitious capital plan requires timely regulatory approvals and construction execution

Stock Performance Context:

The stock trades near its 52-week high, having rallied from the $48 low in early 2025 on improving fundamentals and data center demand visibility.

Operational Highlights

Record Safety Performance: Dominion achieved its lowest-ever OSHA recordable rate of 0.26 in 2025, continuing a three-year positive trend. The company also set a record for its lowest Lost Day Restricted Duty Rate.

Customer Affordability:

• DEV customer rates: 4% below national average
• DESC customer rates: 12% below national average
• Expected rate CAGR through plan: ~2.6% (DEV) and ~2.8% (DESC)

Economic Development: For the ninth consecutive year, Dominion was recognized as a top utility for economic development. Notable wins include Eli Lilly's $5 billion manufacturing facility announcement in Virginia (650 high-wage jobs) and Hampton Lumber's first East Coast sawmill in South Carolina.

Key Risks Flagged

1. Capital Execution Risk The $65B capital plan requires unprecedented construction activity across transmission, generation, and distribution assets, with potential for delays, cost overruns, and supply chain constraints.

2. Regulatory Risk The third biennial review for Virginia base rates begins in March 2027, with outcomes impacting 2028-2029 forward test years.

3. Data Center Concentration Over-reliance on Northern Virginia data center demand creates geographic and customer concentration risk, particularly in Loudoun County.

4. Tariff Uncertainty Current tariffs on steel, Mexico/Canada, and European Union imports add ~$795M to CVOW project costs, with potential for further increases.

5. Interest Rate Sensitivity With $46B of long-term debt, a 25bp change in interest rates impacts operating EPS by ~$0.014.

Q&A Highlights

On Data Center Demand Quality (Bob Blue):

"We're not forecasting based on load letters or inquiries. We're actually showing precisely what we expect coincident demand to be... forecasted data center demand through 2045 is more than covered by existing signed ESAs and CLOAs."

On 2026-2027 EPS Trajectory (Steven Ridge): Ridge explained that 2026 benefits from a full-year Virginia biennial rate increase and half-year South Carolina rate case impact, creating a "catch-up year" that moderates in 2027 before accelerating toward the upper half of 5-7% growth in 2028-2030.

On CVOW Litigation Risk (Bob Blue):

"We continue to see CVOW as the fastest way to get a significant amount of electricity at a low-cost way for our customers who are leading the AI race, who are building ships for the Navy. Slowing it down adds costs, and adding costs and delays in the data center capital of the world, we think that doesn't make sense."

On Equity Dilution: Management expects ~1/3 of total 5-year equity issuance ($8.8B) in 2026-2028, with ~2/3 in 2029-2030 when capital spending accelerates for gas generation projects.

On SMR Nuclear: No SMR capital is included in the 5-year plan. Virginia has authorized rider recovery for SMR development costs, but management is still evaluating technology and expects deployment "a ways away."

On Millstone Contract Renewal: The Connecticut DEEP issued a zero-carbon energy RFP for which Millstone is eligible; bids are due in March. Management is also evaluating data center opportunities but emphasized pursuing them "in a collaborative fashion with stakeholders in Connecticut."

Forward Catalysts

Segment Deep Dive

Dominion Energy Virginia (68% of utility customers)

Dominion Energy South Carolina (32% of utility customers)

Contracted Energy

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View the full Q4 2025 earnings presentation and press release on Fintool.